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CHRISTIAN MEDIA NETWORK
The man who foresaw skyrocketing oil prices
By Adam Porter
Thursday 30 September 2004, 18:50 Makka
Time, 15:50 GMT
In a world
dominated by self-censorship, only the brave speak out. But in a world running
on cheap energy, with all the consequences that it brings, only those who
value their integrity above their wallet are worth listening
to.
Back in April one man, Iranian oil
and energy analyst and expert Ali Bakhtiari did just that. He stood up and
made a prediction that could have seen him ridiculed.
"By the end of the year we will see oil at $50 a barrel,"
he told an audience at the annual gathering of the Association for the Study
of Peak Oil (ASPO) in Berlin.
To make
a prediction that takes in record high prices is one thing. To name the price
is another altogether. But now, while OPEC, the major industrial nations and
Saudi Arabia chant their mantra that there is "no problem", Bakhtiari seems
more vindicated than ever.
Out of
control
Trouble
is, the rise of oil's price range is an undoubted economic threat. Not to the
super rich, the top 1% of global earners, or the super poor, the 50% of the
world's people who live on less than $2 a day, but to everyone else. Around
three billion of us.
"I am afraid
I think the price will go higher," says Bakhtiari worryingly. "I had hoped it
would stay in the $40 range. I think, at that level, economies could start to
cope, but now the price of oil is out of anyone's
control."
Bakhtiari says, "I hope that we don't move into a fifty-dollar
range. The big economies, and by that I mean the US, the EU, China, India and
Japan, are just starting to get used to the idea of $40 a barrel. We have
passed that financial and psychological barrier, but if we moved straight into
the $50 range, then that is not good at all."
However, he does
not see the forty-, or fifty-dollar, range as something that will last
forever. Indeed not even for very long at all. Instead, he says the price is
being driven by something far more fundamental.
Peak oil
syndrome?
"No one can restrain the
price any more. For example, everyone thought that it would be OPEC who could
manage demand. But that is now in the past.
Now it is really peak oil that is behind the wheel of
the car. Peak oil is driving the rise in price and demand is not the real
question. We are entering a new era, but we are only at the very beginning of
it."
The idea behind "peak oil" is this. That, as the
planet reaches the halfway point of consuming all its available oil, then a
combination of bullish demand, slowing fields and insurmountable supply
bottlenecks will create brutal price shocks. Almost certainly slicing the head
clean off the world economy in the process.
This peak in
oil supply will act as an economic guillotine. Yet the thread suspending
the blade above our heads will be released without
warning.
Politicians, producer countries, major oil companies and consumer
states are not about to announce their own demise. It would not be good for
business, or re-election, or both.
Unstoppable
"If there was nothing to be worried about,
then there would be no price increases," explains
Bakhtiari.
"If there is no reason to
worry, because there is plenty of oil and OPEC or Yukos or whoever can simply
pump some more, then there would be no problems and no rises in price. The
market would not be worried at all."
Whilst Bakhtiari admits predictions are fraught with
danger, his own research, so far extremely accurate, says peak oil has yet to
arrive. Like Hurricane Ivan blowing in from the ocean, we may only be
experiencing the first stormy gusts.
"I think the
peak will arrive around 2006, 2007. But, this is only 15 months away. That is
all. At that point, no one can say what is going to happen. Except the price
is going to go up. And no one will be able to stop
it."
Peak Oil - like an economic guillotine
It doesn't matter whether you believe this is a hoax or not, the reasons for bringing it on or not. Fact is, its happening.
Are we ready for $60 dollar a barrel oil, then
70? Heard this am on morning edition of NPR that oil averages $1.99 a
gallon and year over year, it has gone up 63%. One financial newsletter
writer, Stephen Leeb, recently said on an interview at Financialsense.com,
"watch out when oil goes to 80% year over year. All bets are off and the
economy will skid to a halt, said he. How high per gallon must the price
rise, before Americans are forced to change drastically their driving
habits. All one must do to see the grave implications is ride
around a large city. I did, ...around St. Luis,
recently. I marvelled at the engineering marvels of the American
highway system and the numerous safe exits to various suburbs, adjoining
municipalities, etc. I sat and marvelled at the most technologically
sophisticated and efficient road system that transports millions of cars with
little bottle-neck. Amazing the ability of ingenious people, "with the
means." What a wondrous achievement, truly.
However, I marveled just as much that nowhere, did I see one, not one
lonely little public bus transporting anyone anywhere. How are
all these millions of just one large city totally dependent on the private
car.... and then multiply it by hundreds of large cities, going to do when gas
is 3 or 4 or five dollars a gallon, the average price in much of the
world. Americans are not being prepared. The
silence is eerie. Really, it is criminal! Yes, General
Electric and others like them are playing around with alternatives.
Playing around. Were expensive gas with shortages as a norm taken as
a serious matter, hundreds, thousands of companies would rise up and go at
it 24 hours a day. But even if the gargantuan effort were to start
and become ceaseless, starting this late, how many scores of years will it take
to have even something called loosely, relatively efficient alternative
systems. It won't happen. Just looking at the logistics,
that I know.
But I do foresee a day soon, just as it was as a
child growing up in the bush of East Africa, where only a very few haves will
drive and the few who saved lots of money for the eventful times of great
reckoning. Of course life will change drastically. Some, who are
prepared, say for the better. All sorts of entrepreneurial endeavors
and manufactures will predominate locally. But what about that
great, dependent, helpless, not very healthy great mass of people, who have no
clue about how to do anything on their own, who have not done anything but click
or turn this or that contraption, to get all their ammenities.
What
about that great mass! Crime will grow, grow, grow, overnight.
Will it ever. Hello Colombia, Nigeria, Mexico City, Moscow.
Are you ready for $ 60-70- dollar a barrel gas?
--Angie Carlson
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